COLUMN: Zig-Zagging My Way Through The Indianapolis Road Course To Pick Daniel Suarez As My Favorite

By Jerry Jordan, Editor

INDIANAPOLIS – Okay, first a recap of last week. I missed it and I missed it bad. In fact, I sucked. My favorite pick, Kyle Larson, finished seventh but because of the Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch double disqualification, he moved up to fifth. Then there was Bubba Wallace, who finished 10th but got moved up to eighth. In fairness, both of those drivers saw the front of the pack.

Indianapolis, indianapolis motor speedway, daniel suarez, nascar, nascar cup series, indianapolis motor speedway road course, kyle busch, wynnbet
Daniel Suarez on track during practice at Indy. Photo by Zach Catabzareti / Kickin’ the Tires.

So, had there been a lightning strike, heavy downpour or intense fog – all of which have happened at Pocono Raceway – bettors might have won. Sadly, none of that happened until long after the race was over. As for my longshot, Brad Keselowski was a disappointment. I knew the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing organization needed some work when Keselowski went all-in on the team but there’s definitely more work to be done.

So, what happened with the NASCAR disqualification? How did that affect your payouts? Honestly, if you were betting on DraftKings, you might have been paid a double win. Why? Well, DraftKings pays on the unofficial results but if the winner is changed after inspection, they also pay out on the new winner. So, if you bet Chase Elliott last week as a backup and Hamlin because of his previous performance at Pocono you got paid double. ChaChing!

However, our friends over at WynnBET Sportsbook are a little stingy, or perhaps just sticklers for the rules. While most major sportsbooks paid out Hamlin as a winner, WynnBET did not. I repeat, WynnBET marked Hamlin bettors as losers per their rules, which state, “All race bets are settled on the official classification from and final inspection is required to determine the winner.”

This is why it is important to read the fine print.

Indianapolis, indianapolis motor speedway, daniel suarez, nascar, nascar cup series, indianapolis motor speedway road course, kyle busch, wynnbet
Daniel Suarez on track at Indianapolis. Photo by Zach Catabzareti / Kickin’ the Tires.

Moving forward to today’s action at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, the headline says it all, I am going with Daniel Suarez. Why? Well, he is damn good on road courses, won the last road course race and he had an amazing practice run falling short of the leader – Austin Cindric – by one-tenth of a second. No, his qualifying run wasn’t as good as he will start 11th but I expect him to make a few passes on Lap 1.

What are his odds, you ask? That might be important if you’re going to bet. According to the race day odds at the WynnBET Sportsbook, Suarez is on the board at +750. Those are good odds for a favorite but they are also a perfect example of why I sometimes make my bets earlier in the week. On Friday, you could have bet Suarez at +1100. On a $5 bet that equates to an increased payout of $17.50 or 3.5 times over your wager.


Vengeance, that’s the word for my mid-tier value bet pick this week. After being DQ’d last week, if you think that Busch is going to go out and accept a mediocre run at Indy, you’re in for a shock. This place is special to him and aside from that, he just loves to win.

Looking over his practice runs, Busch was 10th after making only four laps. That makes me wonder if the crew was looking at adjustments for the race because his qualifying run also puts him starting from 10th. I know Toyota has ben lackluster on road courses this year, even they admit it. They also vowed to improve and with Indy today, and Watkins Glen in a few weeks, they are running out of time to reveal any improvements.

As for his odds, Busch rolls across the famous yard of bricks at +1500. Wow! Who would have thought you could ever find Busch at 15 times your wager? I’m making my play and we will see how it works out.


Finally, for my longshot pick of the week – Joey Logano. He entered the betting pool on Friday at +4000 odds but after a mediocre practice run, he picked things up for qualifying and will start fifth. That also changed the views of the oddsmaker because his race day action is +2200. Still, that not a bad return for someone like Logano, who admittedly says his job is to win races.

I do want to leave you with one other consideration and that is Michael McDowell.  Even though most people disregard Front Row Motorsports as a non-factor, they have one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series sitting in the driver’s seat. Lest people forget McDowell has a road racing background and was quite good there. His Friday odds were +3300 odds but as of now, he is sitting at +3000.

Apparently, the oddsmakers liked what they saw on the track. He will start the race in seventh.

Remember, my suggestions are based on what I see at the track and from past performances by drivers. It’s called gambling for a reason and there is no guarantee the drivers I pick will end up in victory lane. If you can’t afford to bet, then don’t. And if you aren’t 21 years of age, you cannot legally gamble, so don’t even think about it. Should you have a problem with sports betting or other forms of gaming, you can get help at the National Council on Problem Gambling.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course Odds
Chase Elliott +400   Austin Cindric +500
Kyle Larson +650   Tyler Reddick +550
Ross Chastain +700   Chase Elliott +575
Tyler Reddick +1000   Daniel Suarez +750
Daniel Suarez +1100   Chase Briscoe +800
Austin Cindric +1200   Kyle Larson +900
Chase Briscoe +1500   Ross Chastain +1000
Kyle Busch +1600   Ryan Blaney +1100
Martin Truex Jr +1600   Christopher Bell +1300
Ryan Blaney +1600   Kyle Busch +1500
AJ Allmendinger +1700   Joey Logano +2200
Christopher Bell +1900   AJ Allmendinger +2500
Denny Hamlin +2000   Denny Hamlin +3000
William Byron +2100   Michael McDowell +3000
Kevin Harvick +2500   Martin Truex Jr +3500
Chris Buescher +2800   Chris Buescher +4000
Alex Bowman +3300   Brad Keselowski +4500
Michael McDowell +3300   Kevin Harvick +4500
Joey Logano +4000   William Byron +5000
Ty Gibbs +4000   Alex Bowman +9000
Cole Custer +9000   Ty Gibbs +10000
Brad Keselowski +10000   Cole Custer +20000
Erik Jones +10000   Aric Almirola +25000
Justin Haley +10000   Austin Dillon +25000
Aric Almirola +12500   Justin Haley +25000
Austin Dillon +12500   Todd Gilliland +25000
Bubba Wallace Jr +30000   Bubba Wallace Jr +35000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +50000   Erik Jones +35000
Corey Lajoie +100000   Harrison Burton +50000
Harrison Burton +100000   Cody Ware +100000
Joey Hand +100000   Corey Lajoie +100000
Todd Gilliland +100000   Daniil Kvyat +100000
Ty Dillon +100000   Joey Hand +100000
Cody Ware +150000   Josh Bilicki +100000
Josh Bilicki +150000   Josh Williams +100000
Josh Williams +150000   Loris Hezemans +100000
Kyle Tilley +150000   Ricky Stenhouse Jr +100000
Loris Hezemans +150000   Ty Dillon +100000

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