COLUMN: Big Odds Shift For NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 At Kansas Speedway For Drivers Following Practice And Qualifying

By Jerry Jordan, Editor

Wow, the odds for Tyler Reddick went from being at +1200 to win earlier in the week to race day odds of +525, which makes him the betting favorite to win the Hollywood Casino 400 but is this a reality or just the fact he was fast in practice and qualifying? He doesn’t make any of my three weekly picks to bring a winning return on your wager.

No disrespect to Reddick, for whom I am a big fan, but his average start at Kansas is 14th and his average finish is 17.7, so he hasn’t exactly lit the track on fire in his six previous outings. Admittedly, he did qualify on the front row earlier this year and lead 24 laps, so he had some speed in the first outing of the NextGen car but since then, everyone has had the ability to learn and improve.

Joey Logano also moved up the odds list from an early line of +2000 to a race day line of +800. He qualified on the outside of Row 1 next to Reddick.

I do admit the temptation is there to bet on Logano or Reddick but I don’t like big odds swings based solely on a few runs. This race is 400 miles long and anything can happen but I am going with a driver who ran second here in his first outing this season and won the race last year – Kyle Larson.

Sitting at +675, Larson is among the favorites and a track like Kansas Speedway will give him a chance to get out of the rut he has been on. For several weeks, Larson has been plagued with bad luck. I am betting on Hendrick Motorsports having figured out what was wrong with his car and helping him get to the checkered flag.

The defending champion took a big hit in the points last week and slid from fourth to seventh overall. So, he and the No. 5 team will be looking for redemption at a track where they have shown past success. Larson is my pick as the favorite to win this week.

For my mid-tier value pick this week, it’s a toss-up between Denny Hamlin (+900) and Kevin Harvick but Harvick’s odds will provide a better payback and he’s had three previous wins at Kansas Speedway. In fact, Harvick has had the most quality passes at 1,151 and he has the most green flag passes aside from Kurt Busch, who is still sidelined for concussion-like symptoms resulting from a crash at Pocono Raceway. And giving a nod to my first pick this week, Harvick is behind only Larson (just over one-tenth of a second) for the fastest green flag speed at Kansas. He also has the highest average running order of eighth and the highest driver rating at 108.5 per NASCAR’s statistical records.

Harvick opened up the week at +1500 but apparently, the oddsmakers at the WynnBET Sportsbook weren’t impressed with his qualifying and practice runs because he has dropped down the list into longshot territory at +2200. Still, I am not afraid to put my money on this proven champion. Harvick rolls off the grid in 14th but I look for him to move to the Top 10 pretty quickly. After all, he has led 901 laps of the 8,664 laps he has completed at Kansas.

In the longshot position this week, I am going with Austin Dillon. Since the oddsmakers like his teammate so much, I am thinking some of that perceived speed might rub off on Dillon. The two work well together and share information, so I look for the cars to be set up fairly closely to one another. Dillon starts P11 and his odds to win are at a disrespectful +5000.

Obviously, there is no guarantee he ends up in Victory Lane but 50-to-1 odds for Dillon don’t seem right. In 18 starts, he has finished in the Top 15 half the time and in the Top 10 five times. If chaos breaks out, Dillon could find himself in a position to pounce and be another surprise winner in the NASCAR Playoffs like Erik Jones was last week at Darlington Raceway.

Remember, my suggestions are based on what I see at the track and past drivers’ performances. It’s called gambling for a reason and there is no guarantee the drivers I pick will end up in victory lane. If you can’t afford to bet, then don’t. And if you aren’t 21 years of age, you cannot legally gamble, so don’t even think about it. Should you have a problem with sports betting or other forms of gaming, you can get help at 1-800-522-4700.

Hollywood Casino 400 Odds
Early Odds   Race Day Odds  
Denny Hamlin +550 Tyler Reddick +525
Kyle Busch +600 Christopher Bell +650
Martin Truex Jr +700 Kyle Larson +675
Chase Elliott +750 Ross Chastain +675
Kyle Larson +800 Joey Logano +800
Christopher Bell +1000 Martin Truex Jr +800
Ross Chastain +1200 Denny Hamlin +900
Tyler Reddick +1200 Kyle Busch +900
Kevin Harvick +1500 Alex Bowman +1400
Ryan Blaney +1500 Chase Elliott +1400
Bubba Wallace Jr +2000 William Byron +1400
Joey Logano +2000 Bubba Wallace Jr +1900
William Byron +2000 Ryan Blaney +1900
Alex Bowman +3500 Kevin Harvick +2200
Daniel Suarez +3500 Daniel Suarez +3000
Ty Gibbs +3500 Ty Gibbs +3000
Austin Cindric +5000 Austin Cindric +4000
Austin Dillon +5000 Austin Dillon +5000
Chase Briscoe +5000 Chase Briscoe +5000
Erik Jones +5000 Chris Buescher +7000
Brad Keselowski +10000 Erik Jones +10000
Aric Almirola +25000 Brad Keselowski +12500
Chris Buescher +25000 Aric Almirola +25000
Michael McDowell +25000 Michael McDowell +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +25000 Ricky Stenhouse Jr +35000
Cole Custer +50000 Cole Custer +50000
Harrison Burton +50000 Harrison Burton +50000
Justin Haley +50000 Justin Haley +50000
Noah Gragson +50000 Noah Gragson +50000
Ty Dillon +50000 Ty Dillon +50000
BJ McLeod +100000 Landon Cassill +100000
Cody Ware +100000 Todd Gilliland +100000
Corey Lajoie +100000 BJ McLeod +150000
J J Yeley +100000 Cody Ware +150000
Landon Cassill +100000 Corey Lajoie +150000
Todd Gilliland +100000 J J Yeley +150000
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